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Cherry blossom forecast updated with later start date, full-bloom predictions added

Casey Baseel Mar 7, 2024
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Behind-schedule buds mean we’re going to have to wait just a little longer to see sakura.

Predicting the start of cherry blossom season is no easy task. As one of the first flowers to bloom in the spring, the timing is heavily dependent on when winter fully relaxes its grip on Japan’s weather patterns, but with the blossoms only sticking around for around two weeks total before scattering, a broad-window forecast doesn’t do much good in making hanami (cherry blossom viewing) plans.

So the sakura forecast comes in waves, with meteorologists making multiple refinements as the blossoming gets closer. The latest predictions from Japan’s Weather News are out now, and it notes that the flower buds on the sakura trees aren’t as developed as they were at this time last year in many parts of the country.

▼ Sakura buds change color from brown to yellow and green before turning pink at the tip just before the flowers open.

That means we’re going to be seeing a slightly later start to sakura season than we’d expected, but not by much. Japan is set to see considerably warm weather as we move into mid-March, and Weather News says this will accelerate the buds’ development enough that the sakura will begin to blossom in Tokyo on March 19, one day later than the previous forecast predicted.

Shown on the above map are the following cities and start-of-sakura-blossoming dates:

Akita: April 9 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Aomori: April 12 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Fukuoka: March 21 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Hiroshima: March 21
Kagoshima: March 27 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Kanazawa: March 27 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Kochi: March 22 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Kushiro: May 7 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Nagano: April 3 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Nagoya: March 21
Niigata: March 31 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Osaka: March 23 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Sapporo: April 20 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Sendai: March 30
Tokyo: March 19 (1 day later than previous prediction)

Also, while not listed on the map, March 22 is the predicted date for both Kyoto and Yokohama.

Likewise, the predicted blooming dates for a number of famous cherry blossom viewing spots have been shifted back a bit, most notably with Tokyo’s Ueno Park, traditionally the capital’s most popular sakura excursion destination, now predicted to see its flowers open on March 20.

Arashiyama (Kyoto City): March 25
Goryokaku (Hakodate, Hokkaido): April 19 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Hirosaki Park (Hirosaki, Aomori): April 13 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park (Hiroshima City): March 23
Kochi Park (Kochi City): March 22 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Kumamoto Castle (Kumamoto City): March 22 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Maizuru Park (Fukuoka City): March 21 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Shiroishikawa Riverbank (Ogawara, Miyagi): March 30
Sunpu Castle Park (Shizuoka City): March 26 (1 day later than previous prediction)
Takato Castle Park (Ina, Nagano): March 30 (2 days later than previous prediction)
Tsuruma Park (Nagoya, Aichi): March 21
Ueno Park (Tokyo): March 20 (1 day later than previous prediction)

Arguably just as important as when the sakura will start blooming is when they’ll reach full bloom, as it takes a few days after opening for the blossoms to reach their biggest, brightest, and most beautiful form. As part of its updated forecast, Weather News also has the following by-city full-bloom predicted dates:

Akita: April 13
Aomori: April 16
Fukuoka: March 29
Hiroshima: March 29
Kagoshima: April 7
Kanazawa: April 3
Kochi: March 30
Kushiro: May 10
Kyoto: March 30
Nagano: April 9
Nagoya: March 30
Niigata: April 4
Osaka: March 31
Sapporo: April 24
Sendai: April 5
Tokyo: March 27
Yokohama: March 30

And finally, if you’re looking for zoomed-in regional forecasts for the start of sakura blooming, those maps have been updated too. As always, the cherry blossoms bloom earlier in the southern/western parts of Japan, and later as you move north/east.

▼ Kyushu forecast: Fukuoka (福岡), Saga, (佐賀), Oita (大分), Nagasaki (長崎), Miyazaki (宮崎), Kumamoto (熊本), and Kagoshima (鹿児島)

▼ Shikoku and Chugoku: Okayama (岡山), Hiroshima (広島), Matsue (松江), Tottori (鳥取), Shimonoseki (下関), Takamatsu (高松), Tokushima (徳島), Matsuyama (松山), and Kochi (高知)

▼ Kansai: Hikone (彦根), Kyoto (京都), Osaka (大阪), Kobe (神戸), Nara (奈良), and Wakayama (和歌山)

▼ Tokai: Shizuoka (静岡), Nagoya (名古屋), Gifu (岐阜), and Tsu (津)

▼ Hokuriku: Niigata (新潟), Toyama (富山), Kanazawa (金沢), and Fukui (福井)

▼ Kanto and Koshin: Mito (水戸), Utsunomiya (宇都宮), Maebashi (前橋), Kumagaya (熊谷), Tokyo (東京), Choshi (銚子), Yokohama (横浜), Nagano (長野), and Kofu (甲府)

▼ Tohoku: Aomori (青森), Akita (秋田), Morioka (盛岡), Sendai (仙台), Yamagata (山形), and Fukushima (福島)

▼ Hokkaido’s Sapporo (札幌), Wakkanai (稚内), Asahikawa (旭川), Abashiri (網走), Kushiro (釧路), Obihiro (帯広), Muroran (室蘭), and Hakodate (函館)

With less than a month to go before the sakura start to bloom, we may or may not be getting one more update to the forecast, but odds are this latest batch of dates will be very close to how things play out.

Source: Weather News
Top image: Pakutaso
Insert images: Weather News
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