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Super-detailed cherry blossom forecast maps for 2025 show warm winter doesn’t mean early sakura

Casey Baseel Jan 15, 2025
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Maps show expected blossoming dates for major cities across Japan.

There’s no bigger, more fervently anticipated event in Japan than cherry blossom season, but unfortunately the pretty-in-pink floral phenomenon only lasts for a short time. Sure, you can always expect the sakura to bloom in spring, but within that broad context the start-of-blooming date varies from year to year, and from place to place.

Luckily the experts at Japanese weather forecasting organization Weather News have detailed predictions for the entire country, and the first forecast for cherry blossom season 2025 is now here!

As shown in the map below, the sakura are expected first in Tokyo (東京), where the first blossoms are predicted to open on March 21, three days earlier than average. Following the nation’s capital, the next places where the sakura will arrive, under the current forecast, are the cities of Yokohama (横浜) and Kochi (高知), one day later, on March 22 (also three days earlier than average for Yokohama, but right on the annual average date for Kochi).

The other major cities and sakura start dates on the nationwide map are:

Akita (秋田): April 13 (4 days earlier than average)
Aomori (青森): April 18 (4 days earlier than average)
Hiroshima (広島): March 23 (2 days earlier than average)
Kagoshima (鹿児島): March 28 (2 days later than average)
Kanazawa (金沢): April 2 (1 day later than average)
Kushiro (釧路): May 8 (8 days earlier than average)
Nagano (長野): April 8 (3 days earlier than average)
Nagoya (名古屋): March 24 (same as average date)
Niigata (新潟): April 7 (1 day earlier than average)
Osaka (大阪): March 26 (1 day earlier than average)
Sapporo (札幌): April 24 (8 days earlier than average)
Sendai (仙台): April 4 (4 days earlier than average)

You might notice that, while closer to their average start-of-sakura timing, these dates are generally later than they were in last year’s initial forecast. That may come as a surprise if you’ve been watching the weather over the past few months in Japan, which has had a warmer-than-usual autumn and a mild-so-far winter. However, while it’s true that cherry blossoms don’t bloom until the weather warms up in the spring, the flowers need cold for their development too. After sakura trees shed their leaves in the fall, they go into a dormant state to preserve themselves for the next few months, and it’s not until the winter cold really sets in that the trees react with “OK, looks like that’s the worst of it, so it’s time to wake up and start making some flower buds so we’ll be ready for spring.”

Because of that, Weather News is saying there’s a chance of slight delays in sakura blossoming for certain parts of the southern sections of Japan’s central Kinki region and the southwestern island of Kyushu, which have had particularly warm winters this year up until now. For the most part, though, the current forecast is for cherry blossom season to arrive near average dates for the vast majority of eastern and western Japan, and for blossoming to start in the northeastern Tohoku region earlier than usual as a result of warmer than usual temperatures predicted for this coming April.

In addition to the national map, Weather News has also released zoomed-in looks at the forecast, so let’s check them out, starting in the southwest where most of the earliest dates are and following the “sakura front” up to the northeast.

▼ Kyushu forecast: Fukuoka (福岡), Saga, (佐賀), Oita (大分), Nagasaki (長崎), Miyazaki (宮崎), Kumamoto (熊本), and Kagoshima (鹿児島)

▼ Chugoku/Shikoku forecast: Shimonoseki (下関), Hiroshima (広島), Matsue (松江), Tottori (鳥取), Matsuyama (松山), Kochi (高知), Takamatsu (高松), Tokushima (徳島), and Okayama (岡山)

▼ Kansai/Kinki forecast: Kobe (神戸), Wakayama (和歌山), Osaka (大阪), Nara (奈良), Kyoto (京都), and Hikone (彦根)

▼ Tokai forecast: Tsu (津), Gifu (岐阜), Nagoya (名古屋), and Shizuoka (静岡)

▼ Hokuriku forecast: Fukui (福井), Kanazawa (金沢), Toyama (富山), and Niigata (新潟)

▼ Kanto/Koshin forecast: Nagano (長野), Kofu (甲府), Maebashi (前橋), Yokohama (横浜), Tokyo (東京), Choshi (銚子), Kumagaya (熊谷), Mito (水戸), and Utsunomiya (宇都宮)

▼ Tohoku forecast: Aomori (青森), Akita (秋田), Morioka (盛岡), Yamagata (山形), Sendai (仙台), and Fukushima (福島)

▼ Hokkaido: Sapporo (札幌), Wakkanai (稚内), Asahikawa (旭川), Abashiri (網走), Kushiro (釧路), Obihiro (帯広), Muroran (室蘭), and Hakodate (函館)

As always, it’s important to keep in mind that sakura are fickle flowers and predicting their opening dates isn’t an exact science, so these are merely Weather News’ initial predictions, with updates set to come as we get closer to spring. Also worth remembering is that cherry blossoms take a little time, typically somewhere between a half and a whole week, to go from initial opening to full bloom. Still, sakura season is something you definitely don’t want to miss while you’re in Japan, and this initial forecast is a good start for initial cherry blossom viewing planning.

Source: Weather News
Top image: Pakutaso
Insert images: Weather News
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