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Japan’s foreign tourist numbers projected to fall for first time in years in 2026

Casey Baseel Jan 16, 2026
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Major travel provider says that fewer international travelers will be coming to Japan in 2026, but they’ll be spending more.

It’s no secret that Japan is getting a lot of foreign tourists these days, but it’s startling to see just how quickly their numbers have been ramping up. In 2019, right before the coronavirus pandemic arrived in Japan, the country welcomed approximately 31.88 million visitors from overseas, according to Japanese travel agency JTB. That figure, obviously, cratered during the pandemic, but started climbing again in 2023, when 25.07 million travelers from abroad came to Japan. 2024 saw a then-record of 36.87 million, and while the final tally for 2025 isn’t in quite yet, it is clear that it’s going to be even higher, with JTB projecting a total of 42.6 million foreign tourists for the year.

However, it looks like there’s going to be at the very least a pause in Japan’s skyrocketing number of inbound international travelers, as JTB is projecting Japan’s number of foreign tourists will decrease for the first time in several years in 2026.

The factors that made Japan a top travel destination, delicious food, beautiful scenery, elegant traditions, polished hospitality, and cool pop culture, plus a weak yen, are all still in play. Also part of the travel decision-making mix for 2026, though, is the Chinese government’s advisory telling its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan. Issued out of resentment to indications that Japan would support Taiwan should it become the target of a Chinese invasion, the travel advisory was made in November, and the Chinese government has made no moves to walk back its position since.

While not an explicit ban on travel to Japan, the social pressure being exerted is especially strong on Chinese group tour providers, and we’ve already seen a drop in tourist traffic at certain places in Japan that were consistently popular with Chinese tourists, and JTB’s analysts believe that travel advisory’s effects will continue to be felt in 2026 until such time as the Chinese government removes the advisory. With travelers from China and Chinese-controlled Hong Kong accounting for roughly one out of every three foreign tourists to Japan, tightening that tap is going to have a significant effect on total tourist numbers, and so JTB is forecasting that Japan will receive 41.4 million foreign tourists in 2026, a roughly 2.8-percent decrease compared to 2025.

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that hard times are on the way for the Japanese tourism business as a whole. As discussed above, pretty much the only reason fewer visitors are coming from China is because of the Chinese government’s travel warning, which is a complete non-factor for tourists hailing from anywhere else in the world. JTB expects growing demand from other countries, particularly those in North America and Europe, to largely make up for the decrease in Chinese tourists. As a matter of fact, based on North American and European tourists’ tendencies to stay longer and spend more while in Japan, JTB is actually projecting an increase in foreign tourist spending in 2026, even as the number of visitors dips.

Projected per-foreign tourist spending
● 2025: 225,000 yen (US$1,470)
● 2026: 233,000 yen

Projected total foreign tourist spending
● 2025: 9.58 trillion yen
● 2026: 9.64 trillion yen

Given the Chinese’s government’s propensity for sudden shifts in policy, its possible that the travel advisory could be removed with little to no prior indication, in which case it’s likely that JTB would need to revise its projections, For now, though, it’s looking like Japan’s tourism destinations are going to be a little less crowded in 2026.

Source: PR Times via Yomiuri Shimbun via Itai News
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